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RESILIENCE

FRONTIERS

2019

A Disruptive Brainstorming Conference

on the Future of Climate Resilience

Governments, organizations and individuals require

a long-term outlook and a comprehensive approach

to build resilience to the adverse effects of climate

change. In practice, this raises numerous questions:

how can we think long term without envisioning the

challenges and opportunities associated with the

fourth industrial revolution, including the evolution

of frontier technologies and their ethical, social,

political, and environmental implications? What

will be the possible evolution of emerging social

trends powered by a sustainability ethos, such

as local and organic production and consumption

practices, or the growing recognition of indigenous

knowledge systems and practices? Can we merge

climate change impacts scenarios with various

scenarios of socially and economically transformed

versions of today’s world so as to inform climate

change adaptation plans? Can we go beyond

the extrapolation of current trends so as to best

mitigate and/or preempt risks that could increase

the vulnerability of various population groups to

climate change? Can we consider that frontier

technologies and emerging social trends will play a

major part in enhancing climate-resilience, if this is

what society values, aims for, and undertakes?

The Resilience Frontiers brainstorming

conference utilized strategic foresight methods,

and mobilized innovative collective intelligence

processes to bring answers to those questions.

Imagining the multiplicity of possible future

scenarios opened up a space to co-create visions

of a desirable climate-resilient future, as well

as discuss the underlying changes in values,

institutions and complex support systems.

Numerous risks that we need to address today

could also be reduced by a change in trajectory

towards a world economic system that would be

regenerative by design instead of degenerative

by default. Co-creating engaging visions of the

future is thus critical to both designing ambitious,

transformative and policy-relevant pathways

towards climate-resilience, and to catalyzing action

to foster their emergence.

1.

INTRODUCING

RESILIENCE

FRONTIERS

The purpose

a.

Resilience Frontiers responds to an action pledge

under the UNFCCC’s Nairobi Work Programme on

Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation. The action

pledge was spearheaded by the secretariat of the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC) in collaboration with Canada’s

International Development Research Centre

(IDRC), EIT-Climate-KIC, the Food and Agriculture

Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the

Global Water Partnership (GWP), the United

Nations Educational, Scientific and

Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United

Nations Environment Programme (UN

Environment), and the United Nations Office for

Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA).

The action pledge is a two-year collective

intelligence process. It aims to maximize resilience

to climate change beyond 2030, by addressing

opportunities and challenges in harnessing the

potential of paradigm-shifting frontier technologies

and emerging social trends towards sustainability.

It contributes to fostering innovation and

furthering the exploration of frontier issues

launched by the United Nations Chief Executives

Board for Coordination.

Resilience Frontiers strives to identify pathways

that would enable the implementation of

transformative approaches to climate-resilience

and contribute to regenerating the global

ecosystem. The design of pathways is supported

by the definition of policy-relevant roadmaps

for the next decade. This ‘roadmapping exercise’

will be spearheaded by intergovernmental

organizations and other relevant entities.

In parallel, a nexus of supporting experts,

organizations and initiatives has been set up.

The outcomes of the roadmapping exercise and

of parallel activities undertaken by the nexus

will feed into the work on enhancing ambition

and implementation in relation to adaptation to

climate change both within the UN system as well

as in other institutions engaged in resilience.

b. The action pledge

Space for video

With this approach

we are helping

participants to

play with different

scenarios of the

future, not just to

think outside of the

box but to imagine

there is no box.

Loes Damhof

2.

THE

CO-DESIGN

The brainstorming conference Resilience

Frontiers 2019 kick-started Resilience Frontiers.

The Korean Government hosted this launchpad

brainstorming conference during the Korea Global

Adaptation Week, from 8 to 12 April, 2019. During

the conference, over 100 visionary thinkers and

interdisciplinary thought leaders from around the

world applied a tailor-made foresight methodology

to envision the contours of a climate-resilient

world beyond 2030.

The brainstorming sessions and plenary

discussions contributed to generating collective

visions of a post-2030 world that fosters the

climate resilience of individuals, societies,

economies and ecosystems. Those visions

provided the raw material to define cross-cutting

objectives and possible pathways as a basis for the

roadmapping exercise.

Resilience Frontiers 2019 also enabled the

building of a strong community of practice and

intention among the 103 participants, many of

whom do not work directly on the issue of climate-

resilience. Participants were given the opportunity

to enhance their understanding of the implications

of future climate change impacts, as well as to build

partnerships to address those impacts collaboratively.

The foresight methodology applied at Resilience

Frontiers 2019 was co-designed by the UNFCCC

secretariat, UNESCO, the foresight consultancy

futur/io, as well as other advisory partners

including, 4CF, the gannaca global think tank group,

Exponential Minds, and the Hanze University of

Applied Sciences.

The methodology was tailored to this brainstorming

conference, with the objectives of building on

participants’ complementary expertise, and

of maximizing collective capacity for strategic

foresight, in order to:

Ensure that the evolution of existing and upcoming

frontier technologies (i.e. artificial intelligence,

including autonomous systems, blockchain,

the Internet of things; biotechnology; satellite

technology), and their potential environmental,

socio-political and ethical opportunities and risks, are

addressed in envisioning long-term global resilience;

Enable foresight-centred collective thinking

among experts in those frontier technologies,

purveyors and practitioners of the emerging

sustainability ethos (including indigenous peoples)

a. The brainstorming conference

b. Co-design in practice

and experts who specialize in ‘basic needs’ (i.e. water,

food, health, nature and human security);

Deliberate on the most effective institutional

setups to foster an optimal enabling environment for

transformative and regenerative climate resilience

beyond 2030, by addressing the necessary shifts,

retooling and transformation of finance, education,

international law and governance, human habitats,

as well as values.

Elements of the UNESCO’s well-established

Futures Literacy Laboratory (FLL) action-learning

framework and of future/io’s Moonshot approach

were combined to co-design a strategic foresight

methodology that facilitated the expression of

collective intelligence.

The UNESCO’s FLL action-learning framework

is based on anticipatory systems theory. The

framework enables participants to discover and

specify, by moving from tacit to explicit and from

conventional to newly invented, the anticipatory

assumptions and related narratives used to perceive

and plan for the future. Since we live in a complex

universe, we need to respond to phenomena that

pop into our existence to usher in new possibilities

that were previously unimaginable. The FLL action-

learning framework helps build anticipatory systems

to embrace this complexity, and to better ‘use-the-

future’ in planning for it.

The futur/io’s Moonshot approach uses different

exercises and canvases to help participants

define individual or collective long-term projects

that will generate massive financial value, create

positive social and environmental impacts aligned

with the underlying objectives of the Sustainable

Development Goals for millions of people, and

mobilize emerging drivers of change, including

breakthrough technology. The resulting Moonshot

projects support visionary leadership by creating a

bold vision of the future for a community built around

common values.

Besides, in order to boost the ‘out-of-the-box’

or ‘no-box’ thinking of participants, as well as build

a community, innovative features were introduced

to produce a unique human experience. Inspired by

the gannaca global think tank group’s experiential

formats, those features included evolving room

set ups, singular aesthetics in communication

products, facilitating online networking, enabling

the participation of artists, projecting artwork in the

conference room, and organizing guided mindfulness

sessions and Zen meditation.

We have a window

of opportunity

in the next few

years to do some

transformative

change in order to

prevent the world

from entering into

a period where we

cannot handle the

impacts of climate

change. This has to

be done from now!.

Youssef Nassef

3.

THE

PARTICIPANTS

The Resilience Frontiers brainstorming conference

brought together over 100 thought leaders of

diverse backgrounds, whose expertise cover 14

different themes, which were clustered as follows:

Drivers of change: artificial intelligence (including

autonomous systems, blockchain, the Internet of

things), biotechnology, satellite technology, and the

emerging sustainability ethos;

Basic needs: water, food, health, nature, and

human security;

Institutions and support systems: finance,

education, international law and governance,

human habitats, and values.

To enable transdisciplinary dialogue, each

participant exhibited professional experience in at

least two clusters of expertise. Participants were

identified with the support of our advisory partners,

and with recommendations from other partner

organizations, which also provided valuable support

for their attendance.

Experienced facilitators, as well as researchers

from United Nations University (UNU), the

International Centre for Climate Change and

Development (ICCCAD) and Stratsearch Foundation,

who took detailed notes of the deliberations,

volunteered to support the event.

The full list of partner organizations

and volunteers is available below in the

acknowledgements section.

a. Three clusters of expertise

The 103 experts, facilitators and keynote speakers,

who participated in Resilience Frontiers 2019

belonged to:

United Nations and intergovernmental

organizations: FAO, GCF, GWP, Nordic Council

of Ministers, Ramsar Convention on Wetlands,

United Nations Children’s Fund, United Nations

Development Programme, United Nations Economic

and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, UN

Environment, UNU, and World Bank.

Universities: Hanze University of Applied

Sciences, Hertie School of Governance, Imperial

College London, Kyunghee University, Penn State

University, University of Copenhagen, University of

Ghent, and Yale University.

International think tanks and research centers:

CANEUS International, Center for Engaged

Foresight, Center for Strategic Foresight, EIT

Climate-KIC, Emerging Future Institute, Foundation

for Research and Technology – Hellas, Futur/

io Institute, ICCCAD, International Institute for

Sustainable Development, International Living

Future Institute, the New Humanism Project, the

Stockholm Environment Institute, and the World

Benchmarking Alliance.

Government-affiliated organizations: Centre

for Climate Research Singapore, France’s Centre

National d’Études Spatiales, Finland Futures

Research Centre, Poland’s Institute for Sustainable

Technologies of the National Research Institute, and

Public Health Dorset.

Non-Governmental Organizations: Association

of Peul Women and Autochthonous Peoples

of Chad, Green Generation Initiative, Hand in

Hand India, Humane Society India, Humanitarian

OpenStreetMap, International Federation of Red

Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Slycan Trust,

Snowchange Initiative, and VSO Cambodia.

Private sector: 3 ideas Ltd, 4CF, Africa Knows

Consultancy, Agvesto Ltd, Aloka Consulting

Services, Caesars Entertainment Corporation,

Century Pacific Foods Inc, Deloitte Consulting

GmbH, DHL, DNV GL, Exponential Minds, FHI 360,

fivemoreminutes, Foodshed.io, Ghost Company,

IKEA, Microsoft, OnePoint5Media/Innovators

Magazine, Ridley Scott Associates, Stratsearch

Foundation Inc, Sustainable Square, Tetratech, and

Validity Labs AG.

In addition, two visual artists and a Zen teacher

were present during the event.

Participants came from Africa, the Americas,

the Arctic region, Asia and Europe. There was an

important age diversity among the participants,

which spanned over 50 years. Regarding gender

balance, 45 out of 103 participants were women.

b. Distribution of participants

4.

THE

PROCESS

Over the course of five days, the foresight

methodology applied at Resilience Frontiers 2019

led participants through a four-step process:

1.

Visualizing probable futures under the

impact of the fourth industrial revolution:

Working groups envisioned the evolution

and implications of emerging soft and hard

technologies, as well as new social trends powered

by a sustainability ethos, as drivers shaping our

future by 2030 in a climate-changed world.

2.

Envisioning desirable futures in a

climate-resilient world: Through

individual Moonshot exercises, working groups

visualized and discussed desirable futures in a

post-2030 climate-resilient world, which was

defined as meeting the basic needs of the world

population in a way that would strengthen

the resilience to climate change of individuals,

societies, economies and ecosystems. For that

purpose, working groups deep-dived into the

opportunities and

challenges arising

from the preceding

discussions on drivers of

change, insofar as they

relate to meeting the

basic needs of the world

population beyond 2030

in a climate-resilient way.

This step also included

numerous exercises

to disrupt general

assumptions and biases

about the future, in order to

be more creative in generating

‘visions of desirable futures in

a climate-resilient world’. Further, it opened up the

collective intelligence exploration so as to include

intellectual frameworks, institutional setups and

support systems in conceiving of new desirable

futures in a climate-resilient world.

3.

Reinventing the enabling environment for

transformative resilience: Through collective

Moonshot exercises, working groups visualized

transformed, reinvented or re-tooled intellectual

frameworks, institutional setups and support

systems which would constitute an optimal enabling

environment for climate-resilience, with a particular

focus on meeting basic needs.

4.

Refining visions, and formulating

underlying questions: Working groups refined

their visions and raised underlying questions that

would serve as a basis in the definition of cross-

cutting objectives and possible pathways to be

investigated through the roadmapping exercise.

a. A four-step process

The event consisted of a succession of

brainstorming sessions and plenary discussions,

interspersed with keynote contributions given

by foresight experts. Further information on

the keynote speakers is available the Resilience

Frontiers website.

During the brainstorming sessions, the

participants were broken down in groups of 7 to

9 experts each, so as to facilitate discussion and

collective brainstorming. Group discussions were

facilitated by experienced facilitators trained in

UNESCO’s FLL methodological approach and in

futur/io’s Moonshot approach.

For each 7-to-9-person working group, a

content integrator took detailed notes of the

deliberations, to ensure traceability of the

outcomes of the brainstorming conference

process. Lastly, each working group shot short

videos to present their last collective

Moonshot ideas to the wider group, which

contributed to further documenting the results

of the deliberations.

b. Keynotes, facilitation and documentation of the results

5.

THE

OUTCOMES

The 2030 visions for future resilience co-created

at Resilience Frontiers 2019 break away from

traditional approaches to adaptation to climate

change, by introducing a transformative and

regenerative approach to climate resilience. In those

visions, a global change in consciousness towards

a ‘nature-first’ culture fosters a (re-)connection

to the global ecosystem, which drives individuals

and societies to assume their responsibility in the

stewardship of nature. The health of ecosystems,

including all living beings, is understood as both

a central condition and core criterion for human

resilience to climate change, and thus for human

security worldwide. A global system change

translating into new forms of habitats, as well

as social and economic practices enables the

continuous regeneration of societies, economies and

ecosystems. This takes place against the backdrop

of a wide application of frontier technologies and of

a retooled financial system. Equitable access to data

becomes a global public good and fosters inclusive

public dialogues.

a. Highlights of the visions

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