RESILIENCE
FRONTIERS
2019
A Disruptive Brainstorming Conference
on the Future of Climate Resilience
Governments, organizations and individuals require
a long-term outlook and a comprehensive approach
to build resilience to the adverse effects of climate
change. In practice, this raises numerous questions:
how can we think long term without envisioning the
challenges and opportunities associated with the
fourth industrial revolution, including the evolution
of frontier technologies and their ethical, social,
political, and environmental implications? What
will be the possible evolution of emerging social
trends powered by a sustainability ethos, such
as local and organic production and consumption
practices, or the growing recognition of indigenous
knowledge systems and practices? Can we merge
climate change impacts scenarios with various
scenarios of socially and economically transformed
versions of today’s world so as to inform climate
change adaptation plans? Can we go beyond
the extrapolation of current trends so as to best
mitigate and/or preempt risks that could increase
the vulnerability of various population groups to
climate change? Can we consider that frontier
technologies and emerging social trends will play a
major part in enhancing climate-resilience, if this is
what society values, aims for, and undertakes?
The Resilience Frontiers brainstorming
conference utilized strategic foresight methods,
and mobilized innovative collective intelligence
processes to bring answers to those questions.
Imagining the multiplicity of possible future
scenarios opened up a space to co-create visions
of a desirable climate-resilient future, as well
as discuss the underlying changes in values,
institutions and complex support systems.
Numerous risks that we need to address today
could also be reduced by a change in trajectory
towards a world economic system that would be
regenerative by design instead of degenerative
by default. Co-creating engaging visions of the
future is thus critical to both designing ambitious,
transformative and policy-relevant pathways
towards climate-resilience, and to catalyzing action
to foster their emergence.
1.
INTRODUCING
RESILIENCE
FRONTIERS
The purpose
a.
Resilience Frontiers responds to an action pledge
under the UNFCCC’s Nairobi Work Programme on
Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation. The action
pledge was spearheaded by the secretariat of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) in collaboration with Canada’s
International Development Research Centre
(IDRC), EIT-Climate-KIC, the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the
Global Water Partnership (GWP), the United
Nations Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United
Nations Environment Programme (UN
Environment), and the United Nations Office for
Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA).
The action pledge is a two-year collective
intelligence process. It aims to maximize resilience
to climate change beyond 2030, by addressing
opportunities and challenges in harnessing the
potential of paradigm-shifting frontier technologies
and emerging social trends towards sustainability.
It contributes to fostering innovation and
furthering the exploration of frontier issues
launched by the United Nations Chief Executives
Board for Coordination.
Resilience Frontiers strives to identify pathways
that would enable the implementation of
transformative approaches to climate-resilience
and contribute to regenerating the global
ecosystem. The design of pathways is supported
by the definition of policy-relevant roadmaps
for the next decade. This ‘roadmapping exercise’
will be spearheaded by intergovernmental
organizations and other relevant entities.
In parallel, a nexus of supporting experts,
organizations and initiatives has been set up.
The outcomes of the roadmapping exercise and
of parallel activities undertaken by the nexus
will feed into the work on enhancing ambition
and implementation in relation to adaptation to
climate change both within the UN system as well
as in other institutions engaged in resilience.
b. The action pledge
Space for video
With this approach
we are helping
participants to
play with different
scenarios of the
future, not just to
think outside of the
box but to imagine
there is no box.
Loes Damhof
“
“
2.
THE
CO-DESIGN
The brainstorming conference Resilience
Frontiers 2019 kick-started Resilience Frontiers.
The Korean Government hosted this launchpad
brainstorming conference during the Korea Global
Adaptation Week, from 8 to 12 April, 2019. During
the conference, over 100 visionary thinkers and
interdisciplinary thought leaders from around the
world applied a tailor-made foresight methodology
to envision the contours of a climate-resilient
world beyond 2030.
The brainstorming sessions and plenary
discussions contributed to generating collective
visions of a post-2030 world that fosters the
climate resilience of individuals, societies,
economies and ecosystems. Those visions
provided the raw material to define cross-cutting
objectives and possible pathways as a basis for the
roadmapping exercise.
Resilience Frontiers 2019 also enabled the
building of a strong community of practice and
intention among the 103 participants, many of
whom do not work directly on the issue of climate-
resilience. Participants were given the opportunity
to enhance their understanding of the implications
of future climate change impacts, as well as to build
partnerships to address those impacts collaboratively.
The foresight methodology applied at Resilience
Frontiers 2019 was co-designed by the UNFCCC
secretariat, UNESCO, the foresight consultancy
futur/io, as well as other advisory partners
including, 4CF, the gannaca global think tank group,
Exponential Minds, and the Hanze University of
Applied Sciences.
The methodology was tailored to this brainstorming
conference, with the objectives of building on
participants’ complementary expertise, and
of maximizing collective capacity for strategic
foresight, in order to:
Ensure that the evolution of existing and upcoming
frontier technologies (i.e. artificial intelligence,
including autonomous systems, blockchain,
the Internet of things; biotechnology; satellite
technology), and their potential environmental,
socio-political and ethical opportunities and risks, are
addressed in envisioning long-term global resilience;
Enable foresight-centred collective thinking
among experts in those frontier technologies,
purveyors and practitioners of the emerging
sustainability ethos (including indigenous peoples)
a. The brainstorming conference
b. Co-design in practice
and experts who specialize in ‘basic needs’ (i.e. water,
food, health, nature and human security);
Deliberate on the most effective institutional
setups to foster an optimal enabling environment for
transformative and regenerative climate resilience
beyond 2030, by addressing the necessary shifts,
retooling and transformation of finance, education,
international law and governance, human habitats,
as well as values.
Elements of the UNESCO’s well-established
Futures Literacy Laboratory (FLL) action-learning
framework and of future/io’s Moonshot approach
were combined to co-design a strategic foresight
methodology that facilitated the expression of
collective intelligence.
The UNESCO’s FLL action-learning framework
is based on anticipatory systems theory. The
framework enables participants to discover and
specify, by moving from tacit to explicit and from
conventional to newly invented, the anticipatory
assumptions and related narratives used to perceive
and plan for the future. Since we live in a complex
universe, we need to respond to phenomena that
pop into our existence to usher in new possibilities
that were previously unimaginable. The FLL action-
learning framework helps build anticipatory systems
to embrace this complexity, and to better ‘use-the-
future’ in planning for it.
The futur/io’s Moonshot approach uses different
exercises and canvases to help participants
define individual or collective long-term projects
that will generate massive financial value, create
positive social and environmental impacts aligned
with the underlying objectives of the Sustainable
Development Goals for millions of people, and
mobilize emerging drivers of change, including
breakthrough technology. The resulting Moonshot
projects support visionary leadership by creating a
bold vision of the future for a community built around
common values.
Besides, in order to boost the ‘out-of-the-box’
or ‘no-box’ thinking of participants, as well as build
a community, innovative features were introduced
to produce a unique human experience. Inspired by
the gannaca global think tank group’s experiential
formats, those features included evolving room
set ups, singular aesthetics in communication
products, facilitating online networking, enabling
the participation of artists, projecting artwork in the
conference room, and organizing guided mindfulness
sessions and Zen meditation.
We have a window
of opportunity
in the next few
years to do some
transformative
change in order to
prevent the world
from entering into
a period where we
cannot handle the
impacts of climate
change. This has to
be done from now!.
Youssef Nassef
“
“
3.
THE
PARTICIPANTS
The Resilience Frontiers brainstorming conference
brought together over 100 thought leaders of
diverse backgrounds, whose expertise cover 14
different themes, which were clustered as follows:
Drivers of change: artificial intelligence (including
autonomous systems, blockchain, the Internet of
things), biotechnology, satellite technology, and the
emerging sustainability ethos;
Basic needs: water, food, health, nature, and
human security;
Institutions and support systems: finance,
education, international law and governance,
human habitats, and values.
To enable transdisciplinary dialogue, each
participant exhibited professional experience in at
least two clusters of expertise. Participants were
identified with the support of our advisory partners,
and with recommendations from other partner
organizations, which also provided valuable support
for their attendance.
Experienced facilitators, as well as researchers
from United Nations University (UNU), the
International Centre for Climate Change and
Development (ICCCAD) and Stratsearch Foundation,
who took detailed notes of the deliberations,
volunteered to support the event.
The full list of partner organizations
and volunteers is available below in the
acknowledgements section.
a. Three clusters of expertise
The 103 experts, facilitators and keynote speakers,
who participated in Resilience Frontiers 2019
belonged to:
United Nations and intergovernmental
organizations: FAO, GCF, GWP, Nordic Council
of Ministers, Ramsar Convention on Wetlands,
United Nations Children’s Fund, United Nations
Development Programme, United Nations Economic
and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, UN
Environment, UNU, and World Bank.
Universities: Hanze University of Applied
Sciences, Hertie School of Governance, Imperial
College London, Kyunghee University, Penn State
University, University of Copenhagen, University of
Ghent, and Yale University.
International think tanks and research centers:
CANEUS International, Center for Engaged
Foresight, Center for Strategic Foresight, EIT
Climate-KIC, Emerging Future Institute, Foundation
for Research and Technology – Hellas, Futur/
io Institute, ICCCAD, International Institute for
Sustainable Development, International Living
Future Institute, the New Humanism Project, the
Stockholm Environment Institute, and the World
Benchmarking Alliance.
Government-affiliated organizations: Centre
for Climate Research Singapore, France’s Centre
National d’Études Spatiales, Finland Futures
Research Centre, Poland’s Institute for Sustainable
Technologies of the National Research Institute, and
Public Health Dorset.
Non-Governmental Organizations: Association
of Peul Women and Autochthonous Peoples
of Chad, Green Generation Initiative, Hand in
Hand India, Humane Society India, Humanitarian
OpenStreetMap, International Federation of Red
Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Slycan Trust,
Snowchange Initiative, and VSO Cambodia.
Private sector: 3 ideas Ltd, 4CF, Africa Knows
Consultancy, Agvesto Ltd, Aloka Consulting
Services, Caesars Entertainment Corporation,
Century Pacific Foods Inc, Deloitte Consulting
GmbH, DHL, DNV GL, Exponential Minds, FHI 360,
fivemoreminutes, Foodshed.io, Ghost Company,
IKEA, Microsoft, OnePoint5Media/Innovators
Magazine, Ridley Scott Associates, Stratsearch
Foundation Inc, Sustainable Square, Tetratech, and
Validity Labs AG.
In addition, two visual artists and a Zen teacher
were present during the event.
Participants came from Africa, the Americas,
the Arctic region, Asia and Europe. There was an
important age diversity among the participants,
which spanned over 50 years. Regarding gender
balance, 45 out of 103 participants were women.
b. Distribution of participants
4.
THE
PROCESS
Over the course of five days, the foresight
methodology applied at Resilience Frontiers 2019
led participants through a four-step process:
1.
Visualizing probable futures under the
impact of the fourth industrial revolution:
Working groups envisioned the evolution
and implications of emerging soft and hard
technologies, as well as new social trends powered
by a sustainability ethos, as drivers shaping our
future by 2030 in a climate-changed world.
2.
Envisioning desirable futures in a
climate-resilient world: Through
individual Moonshot exercises, working groups
visualized and discussed desirable futures in a
post-2030 climate-resilient world, which was
defined as meeting the basic needs of the world
population in a way that would strengthen
the resilience to climate change of individuals,
societies, economies and ecosystems. For that
purpose, working groups deep-dived into the
opportunities and
challenges arising
from the preceding
discussions on drivers of
change, insofar as they
relate to meeting the
basic needs of the world
population beyond 2030
in a climate-resilient way.
This step also included
numerous exercises
to disrupt general
assumptions and biases
about the future, in order to
be more creative in generating
‘visions of desirable futures in
a climate-resilient world’. Further, it opened up the
collective intelligence exploration so as to include
intellectual frameworks, institutional setups and
support systems in conceiving of new desirable
futures in a climate-resilient world.
3.
Reinventing the enabling environment for
transformative resilience: Through collective
Moonshot exercises, working groups visualized
transformed, reinvented or re-tooled intellectual
frameworks, institutional setups and support
systems which would constitute an optimal enabling
environment for climate-resilience, with a particular
focus on meeting basic needs.
4.
Refining visions, and formulating
underlying questions: Working groups refined
their visions and raised underlying questions that
would serve as a basis in the definition of cross-
cutting objectives and possible pathways to be
investigated through the roadmapping exercise.
a. A four-step process
The event consisted of a succession of
brainstorming sessions and plenary discussions,
interspersed with keynote contributions given
by foresight experts. Further information on
the keynote speakers is available the Resilience
Frontiers website.
During the brainstorming sessions, the
participants were broken down in groups of 7 to
9 experts each, so as to facilitate discussion and
collective brainstorming. Group discussions were
facilitated by experienced facilitators trained in
UNESCO’s FLL methodological approach and in
futur/io’s Moonshot approach.
For each 7-to-9-person working group, a
content integrator took detailed notes of the
deliberations, to ensure traceability of the
outcomes of the brainstorming conference
process. Lastly, each working group shot short
videos to present their last collective
Moonshot ideas to the wider group, which
contributed to further documenting the results
of the deliberations.
b. Keynotes, facilitation and documentation of the results
5.
THE
OUTCOMES
The 2030 visions for future resilience co-created
at Resilience Frontiers 2019 break away from
traditional approaches to adaptation to climate
change, by introducing a transformative and
regenerative approach to climate resilience. In those
visions, a global change in consciousness towards
a ‘nature-first’ culture fosters a (re-)connection
to the global ecosystem, which drives individuals
and societies to assume their responsibility in the
stewardship of nature. The health of ecosystems,
including all living beings, is understood as both
a central condition and core criterion for human
resilience to climate change, and thus for human
security worldwide. A global system change
translating into new forms of habitats, as well
as social and economic practices enables the
continuous regeneration of societies, economies and
ecosystems. This takes place against the backdrop
of a wide application of frontier technologies and of
a retooled financial system. Equitable access to data
becomes a global public good and fosters inclusive
public dialogues.
a. Highlights of the visions
10